Tom Cruise's Digger takes fourth place by just $1,771 as loss estimates double

Tom Cruise's Digger finished fourth at the North American box office on its opening weekend. It got there by $1,771.

That is the gap in The Numbers' final weekend chart between Digger, at $8,001,856 from 3,321 theatres, and A24's Primetime, at $8,000,085 from 2,894 theatres in its second weekend. When the Sunday estimates went out, Boxoffice Pro had Digger in fifth. Deadline's global chart had it sixth. The final actuals moved it up a place, on a margin of less than two thousand dollars across more than 3,000 theatres.

This is the one Digger number that everyone can pin down. The rest of the film's economics depend on who you ask, and the answers have moved a long way in a week.

Four budgets, three losses, one opening weekend

Alejandro G. Iñárritu's political satire stars Cruise in heavy age make-up as Digger Rockwell. Nobody publishing a figure for its cost agrees with anybody else.

• $125 million — the production budget listed by The Numbers.
• $160 million — Deadline's "net-costing" figure.
• Close to $180 million — the top of the range cited by /Film.
• $173 million — the cost an unnamed insider gave in coverage of TheWrap's loss report, with a further $100 million on marketing and Cruise's global press tour on top.

The loss estimates have moved faster than the box office. Earlier reports put Warner Bros.' exposure at around $125 million. Deadline's breakdown landed at about $150 million. On October 7, TheWrap said $250 million and called it the biggest loss of Cruise's career. The opening weekend didn't change in that time. The estimate of the damage doubled.

Australia got it a day early

Digger opened in Australia on Thursday, October 1, a day before North America (France and Belgium had it a day earlier still). It took $556,557 (in US dollars) from 335 screens over its first weekend, and $758,000 by the middle of the following week, per The Numbers. Australian viewers also got a local face in the supporting cast: Sophie Wilde, of Talk to Me, alongside Riz Ahmed, John Goodman as the President, Sandra Hüller, Jesse Plemons and Michael Stuhlbarg.

The same weekend, Colleen Hoover's Verity opened at No. 1 in Australia. The Numbers has its opening at $2.49 million, about four and a half times Digger's. Deadline, which counts the Thursday as well, puts it at $3.1 million from 500 screens. Both films got the same C+ from CinemaScore audiences in the US.

The figures that are not in dispute

• Opening weekend, North America: $8.0 million, including $1.2 million from Thursday previews.
• IMAX: $2.1 million, or 26.3 percent of the domestic total (Boxoffice Pro).
• Global launch: about $20 million, with $12 million from 74 overseas markets.
• Running totals: $10.6 million domestic and $23.7 million worldwide by October 7–8 (The Numbers).
• Reception: 51 percent from critics on Rotten Tomatoes, C+ from CinemaScore.
• Cruise's worst start since 2007: his lowest opening since Lions for Lambs, which took $6.7 million.
• The film: 128 minutes, rated R "for pervasive language", released by Warner Bros. with Legendary.

Warner Bros. tried this exact bet a year ago and won

The comparison everyone reaches for is One Battle After Another. Paul Thomas Anderson's film was another expensive, adult, auteur-driven Warner Bros. release, and it opened to $48.5 million worldwide a year ago. It finished at $213.2 million, became Anderson's highest-grossing film and won Best Picture.

Digger opened at well under half of that. It also took a different road to release. It skipped the autumn festivals, held its world premiere in London on September 22 and went straight to a wide opening. Boxoffice Pro notes that Iñárritu's earlier wide releases were platformed first. Here there was no slow build and no festival buzz to carry it.

Iñárritu has not apologised for the reviews. He told The New York Times the film is not perfect, and added: "I like taking risks." The risk is now measured in nine figures, and nobody agrees on the second digit.

What is still unknown

• The real budget. The figures in print run from $125 million to close to $180 million, before marketing.
• Whether the awards campaign survives. Iñárritu's pedigree made Digger an obvious contender on paper. A C+ and a 51 percent critics' score make that a harder sell.
• Weekday holding power. Monday took $766,171. Discount Tuesday lifted that by 50 percent to $1.15 million, and Wednesday fell back to $730,000.
• When it reaches home release. No date has been set.

The film is called Digger. So far, the only thing anyone is measuring is the size of the hole.