Oscars 2026: F1’s Shock Surge Threatens Awards Favourites
As the Oscars draw near, two frontrunners seem locked for Best Picture, but a surprise contender is gaining ground. Find out which film could shake up the race and when the nominations will be revealed.
With the Academy Awards just around the corner, Warner Bros. is fielding a particularly strong slate this year. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another are both widely tipped to land nominations for Best Picture, with many punters considering their spots all but certain. Yet, there’s a twist in the tale: another Warner Bros. release is quietly building momentum and could well throw a spanner in the works.
According to industry chatter, the summer hit F1 is resonating with older Academy members, who are calling it
“good old-school entertainment”
. While Brad Pitt’s latest doesn’t carry the same prestige as the other frontrunners, its popularity among voters could see it sneak into the Best Picture category. Given how stacked last year was for award-worthy films, a surprise like this could upend expectations when the final nominations are announced next week.
How the Main Contenders Stack Up
Here’s a quick look at the top films in the running. F1, directed by Joseph Kosinski, has scored a 7.7 on IMDb and boasts an 82% Tomatometer with a whopping 97% audience score. Sinners, helmed by Ryan Coogler, sits at 7.5 on IMDb and has a near-perfect 97% critics’ rating and 96% from viewers. Meanwhile, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another leads with a 7.8 IMDb score and a 94% Tomatometer, though its audience score is a bit lower at 85%.
With such close numbers, it’s clear the competition is fierce. The question is whether F1’s broad appeal can overcome the critical acclaim of its rivals.
Key Dates and How to Watch the Nominations
The 98th Academy Awards are shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested in recent memory. Voting for nominations wrapped up on 16 January, and the final list will be revealed on 22 January. Daniel Brooks, who previously scored a nod for The Color Purple, will join Lewis Pullman to announce the nominees live from the Samuel Goldwyn Theatre at 5:30am PT. The announcement will be broadcast on ABC’s Good Morning America and streamed across the Oscars’ official website and social media channels.
Fans keen to catch the action can tune in live or follow along online as the nominations are unveiled.
Release Timing: A Hurdle for Sinners?
While Sinners and One Battle After Another are both expected to make the cut for Best Picture, there’s a catch that could affect Coogler’s film. Despite the potential for a record-breaking 15 nominations, the timing of its release might work against it. Films that premiere closer to awards season—typically between October and December—tend to fare better with voters than those released earlier in the year.
This so-called recency bias could give an edge to One Battle After Another and A24’s Marty Supreme, both of which are still fresh in the minds of voters. It’s a tough break for Sinners, but with Christopher Nolan recently hosting a special screening as part of its Oscar campaign, there’s hope the film can overcome the disadvantage of an early release.
Share your own predictions for the big night below. F1 is now streaming on Apple TV, while Sinners and One Battle After Another are available on HBO Max.